BTC Price Prediction: Will Bitcoin Reclaim $100K Amid Diverging Forces?

#BTC

• Technical Crossroads: BTC tests Bollinger support amid bearish MACD divergence
• Institutional Push-Pull: Corporate adoption vs. regulatory uncertainty creates volatility
• Sentiment Extremes: Vanishing bull sentiment historically precedes trend reversals

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Key Indicators to Watch

According to BTCC financial analyst Emma, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at 101,659.35 USDT, below its 20-day moving average (MA) of 108,937.19, indicating potential short-term bearish pressure. The MACD (12,26,9) shows a negative value of -275.63, suggesting weakening momentum. Bollinger Bands reveal price hovering near the lower band at 102,007.21, which could act as support. Emma notes that a sustained break below this level may lead to further downside, while a rebound could target the middle band at 108,937.19.

Market Sentiment: Mixed Signals Amid Bitcoin Volatility

BTCC financial analyst Emma highlights conflicting market signals. Positive developments include Metaplanet's $100M Bitcoin-backed loan and Robinhood's potential BTC balance sheet addition, signaling institutional confidence. However, Trump's cautious stance on Bitcoin's role and crashing bull sentiment reflect uncertainty. Emma cautions that ETF-driven ownership shifts and macroeconomic factors could amplify volatility, aligning with technical indicators showing near-term pressure.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Spanish Research Institute Grapples With $10M Bitcoin Windfall From 2012 Experiment

A forgotten Bitcoin purchase by Spain's Institute of Technology and Renewable Energies (ITER) has ballooned from $10,000 to over $10 million, creating unexpected bureaucratic challenges. The Tenerife-based public body acquired 97 BTC in 2012 at approximately $100 per coin as part of blockchain research.

With Bitcoin now trading near $103,200, the council faces complex logistical hurdles in liquidating the holdings. European banks remain reluctant to process cryptocurrency transactions due to volatility concerns and regulatory compliance requirements.

Tenerife's innovation councillor Juan José Martínez confirmed negotiations with a Spanish financial institution authorized by both the Bank of Spain and CNMV to facilitate the sale. Proceeds will fund ITER's scientific initiatives, including quantum technology research.

Metaplanet Leverages Bitcoin Holdings for $100 Million Loan to Expand Crypto Position

Metaplanet Inc., a Tokyo-listed firm, has secured a $100 million loan against its bitcoin treasury, signaling a bold doubling-down on its crypto strategy. The October 31 transaction represents approximately 3% of the company's 30,823 BTC holdings, valued between $3.3 billion and $3.5 billion at the time.

The floating-rate loan, tied to USD benchmarks with an additional spread, will fund further Bitcoin acquisitions and operational initiatives. Metaplanet simultaneously advances a ¥75 billion ($500 million) share buyback program, suggesting confidence in using Bitcoin-collateralized debt to strengthen its balance sheet.

Market observers speculate the MOVE could indicate preparations for strategic acquisitions during price dips or NAV-advantageous buybacks. The undisclosed lender's participation underscores growing institutional comfort with Bitcoin-backed financing structures.

Robinhood Considers Adding Bitcoin to Balance Sheet Amid Crypto Revenue Surge

Robinhood Markets Inc. is evaluating a potential Bitcoin purchase for its corporate treasury, CEO Vlad Tenev revealed during Wednesday's Q3 2025 earnings call. The trading platform's crypto revenue skyrocketed 339% year-over-year to $268 million, now representing 20% of total income.

"Balance sheet allocation requires careful capital consideration," Tenev noted, acknowledging both the community alignment benefits and opportunity costs of such a move. CFO Shiv Verma characterized the decision as part of ongoing strategic debates about resource allocation between product development and asset acquisition.

The deliberation occurs as traditional finance giants like JPMorgan and Bank of America expand crypto offerings, signaling broader institutional acceptance. Robinhood's crypto division continues outperforming expectations, with Bitcoin remaining central to its digital asset strategy.

Cathie Wood Adjusts Bitcoin 2030 Price Target Amid Stablecoin Surge

Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, has revised her bullish Bitcoin price target for 2030 downward by $300,000, citing the unexpected rise of stablecoins in emerging markets. The new forecast stands at $1.5 million, reduced from an earlier projection. "Stablecoins are usurping part of the role we thought Bitcoin would play," Wood noted, emphasizing their rapid adoption for payments and settlements.

Stablecoins, pegged to national currencies, are scaling faster than anticipated, particularly in emerging economies. This trend has led Ark Invest to recalibrate its long-term Bitcoin valuation model. Wood highlighted that institutional experimentation in the U.S. further underscores the shifting dynamics between decentralized and asset-backed digital currencies.

Bitcoin Bull Sentiment Crashes to Zero Amid Market Turbulence

Bitcoin's Bull Score Index has plummeted to zero, signaling a dramatic erosion of short-term Optimism among traders. The last time this metric hit rock bottom was in January 2020—a period preceding Bitcoin's historic rally. While BTC briefly reclaimed $104,000, bearish pressure continues to dominate market psychology.

The CryptoQuant data reveals a complete evaporation of bullish momentum across all key cohorts. This doesn't necessarily forecast a prolonged downturn, but rather reflects extreme caution among market participants. As accumulation strength wanes, the market appears to be resetting expectations for the flagship cryptocurrency.

Trump Praises Crypto for Easing Dollar Burden, but Bitcoin Faces Paradox

President Donald TRUMP positioned the U.S. as "the Bitcoin superpower" and "crypto capital of the world" during a speech at Miami’s America Business Forum. He credited his executive orders with rolling back what he termed the federal government’s regulatory overreach, contrasting his approach with the Biden administration’s enforcement-heavy stance.

Trump framed crypto adoption as economically strategic, suggesting digital assets could alleviate strain on the dollar. "It takes a lot of pressure off the dollar. It does a lot of good things," he said. His comments reflect growing momentum behind stablecoins and strategic reserves in Washington.

Yet, a paradox emerges. Bitcoin has historically exhibited an inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), meaning dollar strength typically suppresses its price. Trump’s push for crypto as a dollar relief valve could inadvertently dampen Bitcoin’s upside.

Bitcoin Ownership Distribution: How ETFs Shifted the Market

Bitcoin's ownership landscape has undergone a seismic shift since the introduction of spot ETFs in 2024. Institutional holdings surged 21%, while retail investors retreated, marking a historic decline in self-custody for the first time since Bitcoin's inception.

Whales are leading the charge into regulated products, moving billions into ETFs attracted by tax advantages and institutional-grade infrastructure. Martin Hiesboeck, Uphold's head of blockchain research, confirms this tectonic movement of capital from private wallets to compliant vehicles.

The data reveals stark contrasts between 2020 and 2025. Retail wallets holding under 10 BTC once controlled 3.1 million coins (17% of supply), while mid-tier (10-1,000 BTC) and large holders (1,000+ BTC) dominated the remainder. Today, traditional funds command over 1.3 million BTC through ETF channels.

Trump Warns of China's Threat to U.S. Crypto Dominance, Vows to Make America Bitcoin Superpower

President Donald J. Trump declared China a formidable challenger to Western supremacy in the cryptocurrency market during his address at the America Business Forum in Miami. "Asia will beat America if we don’t do crypto right," he warned, framing the competition as a pivotal battle for global financial influence.

The former president touted his administration’s role in ending what he called the "war on crypto" under Biden, citing executive orders that halted federal hostility toward the industry. "Crypto was under siege. It’s not anymore," Trump asserted, emphasizing the sector’s economic significance and broad appeal among business leaders.

Trump reiterated his ambition to establish the U.S. as the world’s "Bitcoin superpower" and "crypto capital," echoing previous pledges made during his campaign. While acknowledging America’s current lead over China in digital assets and AI, he cautioned against complacency: "We could lose ground if we fail to act decisively."

Crypto Market Recap: October 2025

October 2025 shattered expectations as the crypto market faced unprecedented volatility. A U.S. government shutdown triggered global economic uncertainty, breaking Bitcoin's historic 'Uptober' streak while DeFi and on-chain activity defied the downturn.

The federal government's October 1 shutdown created immediate Ripple effects. With critical economic data frozen and the Fed operating blindly, investors fled risk assets. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets amplified the sell-off, though decentralized finance platforms saw sustained usage.

Memecoin manias and prediction market wars continued unabated, demonstrating crypto's resilience amid macroeconomic turmoil. The shutdown's prolonged impact remains the dominant narrative, with billions in economic losses compounding daily.

Miami Mayor's Bitcoin Salary Triples in Value Despite Market Volatility

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez remains steadfast in his bullish Bitcoin stance, revealing his BTC-denominated salary has appreciated threefold since adoption. The politician first began receiving portions of his pay in cryptocurrency when BTC traded NEAR $30,000—a decision now yielding substantial returns after the asset's rally to $120,000.

"Daily fluctuations mean nothing when you understand Bitcoin's finite supply and Immutable monetary policy," Suarez remarked during an interview. His comments come as Miami accelerates efforts to reclaim its position as America's preeminent crypto hub, undeterred by FTX's 2022 collapse within city limits.

The Mayor's strategy reflects growing institutional recognition of cryptocurrency's store-of-value proposition. Unlike fiat currencies subject to arbitrary monetary policies, Bitcoin's predictable issuance schedule creates what proponents call "programmable scarcity"—a feature Suarez believes will continue driving adoption.

Bitcoin Recovers as Market Adds $50B; Analysts Divided on Rally Prospects

Bitcoin surged past $104,000 in a brief but potent rally, injecting $50 billion into the cryptocurrency market. The rebound has sparked debate among analysts: Willy WOO suggests a sustained bull run could begin within two weeks if momentum holds, while MEXC's Shawn Young dismisses the move as a technical rebound fueled by spot inflows and short-covering.

Schroders' Jiehan Chen maintains that Bitcoin needs to hold above $103,000 to confirm strength. Meanwhile, Bitcoin Hyper emerges as a potential solution to Bitcoin's scalability issues, proposing a LAYER 2 solution with SVM-compatible speeds and low-fee smart contracts for payments and DeFi applications.

Will BTC Price Hit 100000?

Emma from BTCC analyzes that Bitcoin's current price of $101,659 is testing critical support. Key factors to monitor:

While institutional adoption (Metaplanet, Robinhood) provides long-term support, technicals suggest consolidation below $100K may persist until MACD turns positive.

HTML table included in answer1.text